One Hundred Centuries Of Solitude by unknow

Author:unknow
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9780367297367
Barnesnoble:
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Published: 2021-05-31T00:00:00+00:00

Social/Cultural Uncertainties at Yucca Mountain

An entirely different set of uncertainties is associated with potential future human intrusion into the Yucca Mountain site. It is not difficult to envisage credible events over succeeding centuries that could result in unanticipated human intrusion.

Military activities such as bombing and tests. Historically, there has been an average of four major wars per century worldwide, and the United States has experienced about two per century. Although the frequency of wars may decline because of the deterrence effects of modern weapons or international agreements, it would be unduly optimistic to assume that all military activities will cease over the next 10,000 years.

Underground settlement. Dramatic changes in housing patterns and urban settlement have occurred over the past few centuries, so it is not unreasonable to assume that similar radical changes will occur in the future. Population increases and housing demand may make underground settlements more feasible (or desirable) than alternatives to surface dwellings, such as ocean habitats or space colonies.

Underground traffic. If society continues to permit individual means of transportation, such as the automobile, crowding on surface routes may force extensive development of underground alternatives, such as those that have already become common in some large cities. Urban development in southern Nevada may also one day necessitate development of an underground public transportation system. Although at present it may appear that Yucca Mountain is unlikely to attract an urban population, it is entirely possible that some of the region's traditional constraints to growth, such as climate, aridity, and topography, may be overcome over hundreds and thousands of years. The area might offer new economic advantages, such as clean air or access to space travel.

Intrusive large-scale landscaping. If urban development increases, especially if accompanied by underground transportation systems, new forms of regional landscaping may evolve. Deep storage of HLNW may not seem deep at all if the intervention of future generations matches that which has occurred to date. Other possibilities include resource development near the repository and perhaps even intentional mining of wastes, should future generations develop means to use them as resources.

It is clear that a high level of uncertainty will pervade our efforts to dispose of HLNW. Many sources of uncertainty, both technical and social exist. For example, geology is not a predictive science, therefore uncertainties concerning the performance of the geologic barrier isolating wastes from the environment will prevail. Furthermore, unanticipated interactions are likely to occur among the wastes, the engineered barriers (such as storage casks), and the surrounding environment and groundwater. A new generation of containment casks must be designed, built, and maintained, and there is as yet no way of knowing how well they will perform. Given the long time periods involved, uncertainties about the future social, demographic, and technological environment affecting the repository site will continue. Because the repository is a first-of-a-kind facility, inherently irreducible uncertainties are associated with this unique development. Finally, although it is often assumed that further scientific research and risk assessment will reduce the uncertainties, it's actually more likely that these uncertainties will continue to grow.

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